Since 2015, episodes of protest and hostility towards refugees in rural areas have contributed to the perception of a connection between refugee reception and the rise of far-right populist parties.
Yet this relationship is not automatic. While some rural areas have experienced conflict and politicization around asylum, others have shown pragmatic or welcoming responses, often seeing refugee reception as part of broader local strategies to address depopulation, service reduction or territorial marginalisation.
Mind-the-NEXUS addresses this puzzle through the first systematic and comprehensive study of asylum and migration politics in rural areas across five European countries: France, Germany, Italy, Sweden and the United Kingdom.
The project is led by Tiziana Caponio, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Turin and Fellow at Collegio Carlo Alberto.
The starting point of Mind-the-NEXUS is a key question: does refugee reception in rural areas contribute to the electoral success of far-right populist parties, or is this relationship shaped by more complex institutional, political and territorial factors?
To answer this question, the project looks beyond simplified explanations and focuses on the meso-level dynamics that shape local politics: the role of municipalities, the responsibilities assigned to local authorities, the presence of conflicts around reception, and the relations between rural communities, cities, regional authorities, national governments and supranational institutions.
Mind-the-NEXUS is structured around three main objectives, each connected to a specific dimension of the asylum–far right nexus in rural Europe.
Mind-the-NEXUS aims to identify patterns of electoral support for far-right populist parties in rural areas across different types of elections, from local to national and European levels.
To do so, the project will build a new database on Rural Politics and Asylum, covering rural municipalities and electoral districts in the five countries analysed.
The project will investigate the institutional and political factors that can drive the politicization of asylum in rural areas.
It will focus on how responsibilities assigned to local authorities, conflicts around reception, and multilevel political relations shape the emergence — or absence — of an asylum–far right nexus.
Mind-the-NEXUS will study how local policy elites understand refugee reception and integration in their communities.
Through a comparative survey, the project will analyse how elected and non-elected local officials perceive asylum politics, the role of local governments and the influence of far-right actors.
Mind-the-NEXUS investigates whether far-right populist parties gain electoral support in rural areas affected by refugee reception, and which voting patterns can be identified across different electoral competitions.
The project analyses the meso-level institutional and political mechanisms that may lead to the emergence of an asylum–far right nexus in Rural Political Arenas facing multiple challenges.
Mind-the-NEXUS explores how local officials and policy elites understand refugee reception, integration and the politics of asylum in their communities.
Mind-the-NEXUS adopts a mixed-methods research design, combining quantitative analysis, qualitative comparative research and survey data.
The project moves across countries and localities to generate new evidence on how asylum politics unfolds in rural Europe.
The project will build the first open-access database on Rural Politics and Asylum in Europe.
The database will collect information on electoral outcomes, refugee reception, public service provision, foreign population, demographic trends and socio-economic conditions in rural areas.
Mind-the-NEXUS will carry out qualitative research on 60 Rural Political Arenas, selected across the five European countries covered by the project.
This analysis will investigate the drivers and mechanisms that shape different forms of politicization around asylum.
The project will conduct a comparative survey of rural policy elites in Europe and in the United States.
The survey will target local officials involved in asylum and migration-related issues, exploring how they perceive refugee reception, integration and the role of far-right actors in local politics.
For information about the project, research activities or collaborations, please contact the project team.
